It's 7pm on 9th November and as I sit on watch with the sky darkening, replete with a hot meal of aubergine, chickpeas and tomatoes with rice prepared by Justin I look across 100 yards of quiet sea at an amazing sight. It's another yacht! The 55' Swan, Cesarina, which has closed track with us, has been in contact by radio over the last few days. A few miles away another German boat, Joshua, is in contact by radio as well, and we chat twice a day and exchange information. It seems that the PredictWind service that I use is giving a far more comprehensive look ahead than they can get, so it helps their passage planning.
One hundred and twenty miles ahead lies Madagascar, and a change in the wind is due very soon as a front passes us and the wind goes from NE to SW. We should get thunder and lightning and rain.
Most of the day I seem to have been wrestling with weather forecasts and different passage plans. The tricky problem of southerly gales on the South African coast is still there, with all four forecasts showing different scenarii, making planning very difficult. If we carry straight on it looks as though we encounter 40-60 knot winds with waves in excess of 6 metres as we arrive off Durban. The Agulhas current will turn these into breaking monsters, and so that is not advisable. However if we stay a few days in Madagascar, then the next storm will be upon us a few days later repeating the difficulty!
At present my plan is to wait a day or so in Port Dauphin before I make a decision. Meanwhile Dietmar on Cesarina informs me that one ARC boat has turned back with rigging problems and another has an injured crewman on board, is running late and is unlikely to get to Richards Bay before the storm hits. Apparently he broke ribs and shoulder mountain biking in Reunion!
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