Towards South Africa

The World ARC fleet left on Saturday, leaving behind the 55' Swan yawl Cesarina which had to replace her stays which had started to snap. On Monday Justin and Mark took the car to get fresh vegetables and fruit, post letters for me, and then returned the car. I stayed on board to meet with Customs, plan the route and deal with marina fees. We cleaned, stowed food, filled the water and diesel tanks and thoroughly washed the decks to get rid of the covering of red dust. Laundry adorned the rigging flapping happily in the wind and sun.

It was a relief to set sail on Tuesday morning and to watch the great volcanic cone of Reunion slowly diminish astern. It had been wonderful to have a holiday in Mauritius and Reunion with Anne and Alice. The exploration ashore had been interesting, but mooring in the concrete dock in Reunion was rather grim, and as the days went by the anxiety of managing the difficult leg to Durban has been weighing on me. A 10-11 days voyage is too long for me to get a reliable forecast for the critical last hundred miles or so across the Agulhas current, but rounding the southern tip of Madagascar is only 4 days away, so that can be planned for with reasonable certainty.

Now after 24 hours relaxed sailing in sunny weather and light NE winds, our speed has been dropping from 6 knots to 5. When I came on watch at 06:00 this morning the sails were flogging nastily and we were down to 3-4 knots. Mark got the Parasailor out and we soon had it pulling away nicely, bringing peace to the boat without all the flapping.

We held a radio net at 10:30 with Cesarina, now 20 miles ahead, and Joshua, sailing about 6 miles astern, and discussed weather tactics. My plan is, for the first time, based firmly on the Predictwind weather routing system, which has got all four forecasts agreeing for once. It suggests a route towards eastern Madagascar, to 24S 48E and then sailing down the coast in the 2 knot current. We will pass Port Dauphin, site of the first French settlement, and reputedly graced with some excellent restaurants :-). There's a big depression coming past southern Madagascar and if needed we could find shelter there, and even get a new stamp in our passports!. Once the storm passes we will head south 100 miles with the wind from the West, and then as it backs to South and then East we can curve towards a South Africa.

However it is at that point that the trickiest decision must be made. The long range forecasts already show a second southerly storm due to come up past Durban. I must at at all costs avoid crossing the Agulhas current at that point, as gigantic waves can form which deter cargo ships as well as yachts,and we may need to heave to well beforehand and ride it out for a couple of days, or I could wait in Madagascar for a bit.. Timing is tricky as Justin has booked his return flight home from Port Elizabeth, so I can't delay that long. We are also meeting Richard there, but that's less of a pressure if we are a day or so late.